Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.109750 18.379309 20.833342 23.681423 26.893272 30.400592 34.518179
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.302491 15.252167 18.692635 22.991929 28.210269 34.328135 42.033516
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.611629 13.871762 17.861617 23.085222 29.723785 37.857465 48.555551
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.425282 12.911242 17.361870 23.431401 31.460193 41.680126 55.634153
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.456885 12.066866 16.848414 23.603481 32.852483 45.017208 62.164945
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.538175 11.168505 16.142462 23.400428 33.655656 47.551041 67.712651
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.906184 10.589484 15.793748 23.613810 34.981707 50.802450 74.360360
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.523436 10.322686 15.844170 24.365943 37.078115 55.203943 82.833801
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.924594 9.668969 15.262688 24.124130 37.678970 57.465595 88.317123
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.155892 8.678050 14.086319 22.879075 36.667528 57.267553 90.111264
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.902192 8.477856 14.102174 23.455996 38.445902 61.297283 98.441767
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.678868 8.304302 14.139604 24.056258 40.278848 65.486505 107.216781
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.293155 7.833353 13.672611 23.826075 40.802009 67.717580 113.141036
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.901321 7.317182 13.090063 23.358812 40.901356 69.273787 118.070988
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.637140 7.000006 12.814042 23.377500 41.788721 72.120408 125.209643
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.456131 6.816220 12.751693 23.753498 43.293576 76.047080 134.324097
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.258079 6.582498 12.580644 23.919168 44.432866 79.405524 142.636370
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.023962 6.259245 12.221747 23.716416 44.899410 81.626703 149.095503
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.867920 6.073071 12.098942 23.931547 46.116278 85.189757 158.040648
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.794123 6.043227 12.265541 24.693529 48.367802 90.672476 170.629835
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.601257 5.755360 11.916533 24.448545 48.729666 92.793151 177.291147
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.308288 5.234435 11.074050 23.187741 47.091256 91.194306 177.093774
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.241450 5.186170 11.166432 23.771970 49.018118 96.228444 189.344865